Age-structured Mathematical Modelling on Mumps Outbreaks in Jiangsu Province


主讲人:刘贤宁  西南大学教授


地点:腾讯会议 478 127 447


主讲人介绍:刘贤宁,西南大学数学与统计学院教授、博导、院长,现任中国数学会理事、中国统计学会理事、重庆数学学会理事长等。2004年入选第二批“重庆市高等学校优秀中青年骨干教师资助计划”、2008年入选“重庆市第二届学术技术带头人后备人选”  、2018年入选“重庆市第三届学术技术带头人”。主要从事动力系统及生物数学研究,主持国家自然科学基金面上项目4项、教育部科学技术研究重点项目等其它项目6项。参与完成项目《非线性生态种群动力学问题研究》获教育部2013年度高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖自然科学奖二等奖、《生物种群动力学若干问题机理研究》2014年获浙江省自然科学一等奖。在SIAM  J Appl Math,J Theor Biol, Nonlinear Anal等国内外重要学术期刊上发表论文90余篇。

内容介绍:Measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine program was introduced in Jiangsu  province of China in May 2008 and have greatly contributed to decreasing of  mumps cases. However, mumps is re-emerging after year 2015. A number of studies  have put forward that the resurgence of mumps is due to vaccine failure. In this  talk, we investigate other reasons of the re-emerging of mumps, such as the  changes in seasonal transmission patterns and demographic structures using an  age-structured mathematical model. We divided the history (2005.01-2019.05) of  mumps epidemics of Jiangsu province into three different stages (period): no  vaccine stage (2005.01-2008.12), effectively controlled stage (2009.01-2015.12)  and resurgence stage (2016.01-2019.05). The features of mumps epidemics in three  stages, such as seasonality and basic reproduction number R0, are compared under  different demographic structures with same physical contact rate. We found that  the mumps transmission rate was increasing in summer, changes in demographic  structure is explained why the mumps outbreaks among 10 years of children in  stage I and among 5 years of children in stage III. We have concluded that the  vaccine failure, changes in seasonality and demographic structure were  associated with the mumps outbreak in recent years. We give the patterns of  mumps dynamics considering age, vaccine and seasonality, which can help health  program planners to implement more preventive interventions in mumps control  during the period of higher risk of infection.